29 June 2016, The Tablet

Sir Ivor Roberts: 'We have chosen to go it alone and must live with the consequences'


 

Welcomed by Russia, China and far-Right leaders across Europe, the referendum result threatens the prosperity of the City, our trade with the US and the wider world, and our relations with the Commonwealth. At least the Holy See will continue to have regard for Britain

A Fox News strapline on the day after the referendum read: “UK votes to leave UN.” Well, not even nearly right. No more likely than the UK voting to leave Planet Earth. Yet the international ramifications of Brexit are not to be minimised.

To take our 27 soon to be ex-partners first, there is a clear instinct among some (including the French, of course) to exact punishment, not least to deter other putative defectors. The row about when to trigger our exit by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is symptomatic. Where the EU is disinclined to wait on the Conservative Party’s internal electoral arrangements before negotiating our exit terms, the UK Government and the Brexiteers see no need to rush. This is a foretaste of serious disagreements ahead.

For some on the continent, the prize of relocating the European centre of financial services from London to Amsterdam, Paris or Frankfurt is now within reach. The City could well be excluded from “passporting”, which allows British-based financial institutions to sell into the rest of the EU without having a branch there. Without these rights, it is conceivable that UK exports of financial services to the EU could fall by half, or about £10 billion (€12bn) – and make a move out of London a very attractive step for serious financial players.

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