This year is likely to go down in contemporary history as one of shifting political paradigms. Next year may hold even more dramatic shifts with the prospect of elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands. There might also be elections in the UK and Italy, depending on internal political developments. As in 2016, the beneficiaries in all the countries are likely to be more populist and right-wing parties or movements.  

The French presidential election is likely to get most attention because it will take place against the background of the migration crisis, growing economic woes and the ongoing state of emergency following the terrorist attacks. Furthermore, one of the main candidates, Marine Le Pen, of the National Front, is committed to bringing France out of the EU. Opinion polls have her leading the first round of the two-round election system. If she is elected, and if France has a referendum to leave the EU, and if that is successful, then the EU would be at an end. It could survive a UK departure, but not a French one.

All this, along with Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, are creating an immense amount of uncertainty. The old power certainties in the West are in flux in a way that they have not been for decades. For example, the UK’s traditional foreign policy is facing significant challenges.