Analysis – Clifford Longley on the snap general election

A successful politician needs to be a lucky one. If ever there was a symbol of a politician whose luck had run out, it was Rishi Sunak’s appearance on the steps of 10 Downing Street on Wednesday to announce that he had called a general election. The heavens opened and he was drenched. But the symbolism went further. This was a Prime Minister who led a government with great power at its disposal, power it could surely have used, had it thought about it in time, to keep its leader dry. What price a gazebo or even an umbrella? As he pleaded for a new mandate to lead the country, getting wetter and wetter, everything about the miserable scene signalled lack of seriousness, incompetence, and bad luck.

He has the misfortune to be entering a general election campaign fighting not one but two dangerous opponents: Labour and his own Conservative Party. In the latter are not just the many Tory malcontents for whom he is not left wing or right wing enough, or just plain not good enough, but his own party’s recent history. He may not be blamed for the serious misjudgements of the austerity era, with which this present span of Conservatism began and whose harm still lingers. But he also has to carry the collective baggage of the Boris Johnson years, the futility of Brexit, the endless scandals, parties and lies, the damaging fiasco of the Liz Truss premiership (though he personally warned against it), the soaring cost of living and borrowing, and the inheritance of a government of second rate ministers drawn from a party that obstinately refuses to be governed. One theory going around on Wednesday as to why he has opting for an early election was that he was trying to head off a “no confidence” vote by his own MPs. With this burden it does not really matter how good he was at his own job, though the verdict on that too must be “not very”. And he was unlucky.

Sir Keir Starmer, on the other hand, has climbed a mountain since he took on the leadership of a party that had just had its worst general election defeat since 1935. That party is now 20 points ahead in the polls, and hot favourite among the bookies. He was very lucky indeed, as fate dealt him ace after ace in the political card game. The Scottish Nationalists starting falling part, reviving Labour’s prospects north of the border ten-fold. He took on the quasi-Marxist hard left in the Labour party and whipped it. He defumigated its noxious antisemitism, assembled a leadership pack that looked competent, not least with Sue Gray as principal sheep dog, and instilled discipline in the ranks and among his shadow ministers. He gives an impression of knowing what he is doing and how to do it, as do most of them. He and they do not make key speeches in the pouring rain.

But this comparison between the two main contenders is not really of like with like. The fundamental question is not how badly was Britain being governed until two years ago when Sunak arrived. The present Sunak team may not be very good but it is impossible to tell how good Starmer’s will be, if and almost inevitably when, it assumes office. It is yet to be tested. It may be worse. What is its collective character and competence? On the first point, does it value virtue – prudence, justice, courage, moderation – and punish vice? On the second, does it bring to government preconceived ideas and rigid dogmas, or does it operate within a framework where morality takes precedence over efficiency, and indeed, popularity? Above all does it choose what Catholics would recognise as a preferential option for the poor? Does it uphold human dignity, to the nth degree? Or is profit still king?

Prayers for an incoming government are always desirable, and with the country in the state it is in, never more necessary. May the parties fight cleanly and honestly. May the right issues be central, may the hard choices be selfless, and may the United Kingdom be blessed again with good government.

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