A poll of US Catholics’ voting intentions found Vice President Kamala Harris led Donald Trump by a margin of 50 per cent to 43 per cent, with six per cent undecided.
The poll, conducted for EWTN and Real Clear Opinion Research, surveyed 1,000 Catholics nationwide on 28-30 August, after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention. Its margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Similar to other polling of the general electorate, it displayed a significant gender gap, with female Catholics support Harris by 57 per cent to Trump’s 37 per cent, while male Catholics support Trump by a margin of 49 per cent to 43 per cent.
Harris was more popular among Latino Catholics than other groups, supported by 60 per cent of Latino Catholics to Trump’s 30 per cent, with 10 per cent undecided.
The poll reported Harris was more popular than Trump among Asian and Black Catholics, but they constitute a relatively small segment of the population and, consequently, a small sample size with a significantly greater margin of error. Harris also bested the former president in every age group surveyed in the poll.
Harris has led Trump in national polls of the electorate since the start of her campaign in July, although her lead seemed to falter in polling at the end of last week ahead of a televised presidential debate on Tuesday.
Catholic voters are slightly overrepresented in several swing states, according to data drawn from Pew Research surveys, the US Census and the US bishops’ conference, but the composition of the Catholic population differs.
In the most important swing state, Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral votes, Catholics make up 24 per cent of the population, but only seven per cent of them are Latino while 88 per cent are non-Hispanic White. The proportion is similar in two other swing states along the Great Lakes, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Conversely, in Arizona, which was one of the closes contests four years ago, Catholics are 21.2 per cent of the population, and 52 per cent of them are Latino while only 43 per cent are non-Hispanic White. The numbers are similar in neighbouring Nevada.
In 2020, Trump improved his vote proportion in heavily Hispanic precincts by double digits over his 2016 totals. Many political analysts concluded the rise in the number of Hispanic Evangelicals accounted for his gains. As of 2022, only 43 per cent of Hispanics identify as Catholics, according to Pew, down from 67 per cent in 2010.
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