Democrats confounded pre-election polling and historical trends to maintain control of the US Senate, win important governorships, and possibly even retain control of the US House of Representatives in last week’s midterm elections. Typically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in both chambers, and polls were predicting a Republican wave in the week’s leading up to election day.
Exit polls indicated that abortion was a major reason for the Democrats surprising showing, with opposition to the Supreme Court’s decision returning the issue to state legislatures last summer causing swing voters and young people to turn out, but some experts question the reliability of those polls. In typically Democratic states, like California, New York and Massachusetts, pro-choice Democrats won statewide races, but in Texas, Florida and Ohio, incumbent Republican governors who had signed laws restricting access to abortion sailed to easy reelection victories.
Five states – California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont –had referendums on abortion, and pro-life groups lost in all five. In Michigan, where voters adopted a proposal to put abortion “rights” in the state constitution, the state’s Catholic bishops issued a statement that captured the mix of bewilderment, disappointment and determination that characterises the pro-life movement at this time.
“This is a tragic day for Michigan and for the cause of protecting and upholding the inherent dignity of all human life,” the bishops said. “Despite the tremendous hurdle this constitutional amendment presents, we will continue to support policies that uphold parental rights and the sanctity of human life as well as those that offer assistance to women in need. Regardless of what abortion laws and policies are in place, we continue to pray for and work toward a day where human life is welcomed as a gift and where abortion is considered an unthinkable option.”
Hispanic voters, the fastest growing part of the Catholic community nationwide, delivered wildly different verdicts. In Florida, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis carried Miami-Dade county, which is 69 per cent Latino, with 55 per cent of the vote, on his way to a decisive victory. By way of comparison, in 2016, Hillary Clinton won Miami-Dade county with 63 per cent of the vote. In Texas, an incumbent Republican, Rep. Mayra Flores, lost her seat in Congress to Democratic challenger Vincente Gonzalez but Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz flipped another congressional district, defeating the Democratic candidate Michelle Vallejo. And, the only pro-life Democrat in Congress, Rep. Henry Cuellar, won his reelection bid, indicating that Hispanic voters in Texas remain socially conservative.
In Nevada and Arizona, where organised labour includes many Latino workers, the Hispanic vote appears to have broken heavily for the Democrats, propelling Democratic Senate candidates in both states to victory. However, in Nevada, incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak lost his reelection bid to Republican challenger Joe Lombardo and the Arizona gubernatorial contest has not yet been called at the time of going to press.
Control of the US House of Representatives remains undetermined, but many of the outstanding contests are in California districts with significant Latino populations. California relies heavily on mail-in balloting, so it could be weeks before some results are finalised.
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