11 May 2017, The Tablet

A lucky general: Emmanuel Macron now needs all the good fortune he can get


 

Napoleon preferred lucky generals to good ones. France’s youngest head of state since Bonaparte will need all the good fortune he can get if he is to succeed with his reform plans

The French, it is said, hate reform but love revolution. They have now elected a man who has promised them both. After defying all odds and winning the presidency, Emmanuel Macron now faces just as difficult a challenge in trying to govern the country. The 39-year-old ex-banker, whose solid victory last Sunday was his first foray into electoral politics, has proposed a list of modernising economic and social reforms with more than a whiff of the “Third Way” or “social-liberal” policies already tried elsewhere in Europe. Macron presented them in a campaign book ambitiously entitled Revolution. But the real novelty is that he might actually go through with them, not retreat like his predecessors when the inevitable protests fill the streets.

The revolutionary part of his programme is how he plans to govern. Frustrated by the deep left-right divide that has shaped France’s politics since 1789, Macron wants to rule from the centre, possibly with a coalition – two words not normally heard within the Paris classe politique. The two-round presidential election was just the start of the long march towards this goal. Next comes the legislative elections on 11 and 18 June, where he hopes his start-up party En Marche! (On the Move!) can emerge as the largest in the National Assembly. If it doesn’t, he will at best be forced to find coalition partners where he can. At worst, the conservative Republicans could stage a comeback, form a majority and force him into a “cohabitation” with a prime minister governing against rather than with him. All this seems like a high hurdle for Macron, but a few months ago, so did achieving the presidency. Pulling off this second stage will require hard work, skilful tactics and luck. So far, he has displayed all three.

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