A leading theologian and sociologist believes that, when the dust has settled on the pandemic, dioceses in England and Wales that had been planning for a future with fewer priests and fewer laypeople are likely to find the shrinking in Mass attendance to have been accelerated

Preparations are being made by the bishops’ conferences of Ireland, Scotland, and England and Wales to safely reopen churches for public Masses and for private prayer. I am not alone in wondering what Mass attendance figures might look like when all this is over.

I’m a sociologist and theologian with an interest in evangelisation. In Catholicism in the Time of Coronavirus, an ebook now available free from Word on Fire Institute (https://www.wordonfire.org/covid/) I look at the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Church, especially in the United States, and how the Church’s pastoral and evangelistic mission might most effectively respond. It is of and for a particular moment very aptly likened – as Pope Francis did in his extraordinary Urbi et Orbi blessing on 27 March – to a storm at sea.

Here I want to put on my sociologist hat and look at the likely impact of the crisis on Mass attendance in the United Kingdom. I lay out a mix of facts, reasonable theory, and informed-but-fallible speculation. A good deal of my analysis is not exactly cheering reading, though in my ebook I highlight some “silver lining” counter-trends. I have written in the past about the need for those committed to the new evangelisation to be clear sighted and realistic. There is no one, believe me, who would be happier to see me proven wrong.