Political tectonic plates in the Balkans have a way of moving slowly. But in two of the component republics of the former Yugoslavia recent developments suggest a change of direction without some of the bloodletting that so disfigured the region in the 1990s

At a conference of Nato leaders in May 2017, the United States’ President, Donald Trump, rudely shoved aside Dusko Markovic, the Prime Minister of Montenegro, the defence organisation’s most recent recruit. Even more bizarre was Trump’s comment on his pet Fox News network last summer when he was asked why the US should defend Montenegro from attack. His reply was jaw-dropping.

“I’ve asked the same question. Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people. They’re very aggressive people. They may get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in World War Three.” Spoiler alert. Montenegro will not be causing the Third World War. And Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty commits all members, including the US, to come to the defence of a fellow member if attacked.

At the outset of the war in Croatia in 1991, Montenegro was closely aligned with Serbia, led by Slobodan Milosevic. Since then, it has become a haven of peace and tolerance between an Orthodox Christian majority and Muslim and Catholic minorities. Its principal role in the Balkan wars of the 1990s – in spite of having a population smaller than Leeds – was to take in more than 120,000 refugees from the other warring states. The distancing from Milosevic, the opposition to Serbia’s behaviour in Kosovo, the subsequent independence from Serbia through a peaceful, democratic referendum supported by the international community, membership of Nato despite the bitter hostility of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and an application to join the European Union, all took place on the watch of Montenegro’s President, Milo Djukanovic, Europe’s longest-serving political leader, despite being just the right side of 60.