The annual burst of New Year forecasting has been particularly perilous this year. Perhaps it is wise not to attempt it for 2018. The furthest a particularly sage diplomat friend of mine would go last month was to venture of the UK that “we are writing ourselves into a smaller role”.

As a people, we endlessly wrestle with the question of what kind of influence we wish the UK to exert in the world. But influence of some sort most of us wish our country to deploy, and we care if the Foreign Secretary of the day falls below requirements as our representative in the councils of our globe.