Boris and Brexit: truth-teller playing the fool, or reckless buffoon?

It is clear that some people regard Boris Johnson as little more than a gifted buffoon. Yet in electing him as their new leader, which members of the Conservative Party appear to have done, they have displayed considerable political shrewdness. They saw their job, it seems, as doing whatever it takes to protect the Conservative Party from the threat of annihilation. However unlikely it may seem, this is the question to which Boris Johnson is the answer.

The threat arises from the failure of Theresa May to bring about the UK's departure from the European Union. The threat comes not from the official Opposition but from the brand new Brexit party, which is ready to hoover up the votes of millions of disgruntled Conservatives. And Mr Johnson has an amazing ability to attract people who might not otherwise give him the time of day. He has an authenticity that is rare in public life. He makes people laugh. It is just one of his many selling points.

He is only a buffoon part of the time, when he switches it on. His major problem is that he doesn't always know when it's appropriate and when it's not. Foreigners don't get it. They just think he is rude. He can sound like a statesman, and at other times like a complete idiot. 

What he shares with President Trump is a loose association to the truth. Where he also differs is in his use of that final disarming resort of the English establishment, self-deprecating humour. It is ironic, a pretence of humility, dressed up with wit. But it tickles the other side of the brain, like almost nothing else. Boris is easy to like, and that is one secret of his success. He is not always quite serious, one breath away for the next gaffe or the latest howler.

Yet he has a formidable intelligence. And we must not forget that for Shakespeare and many other literary giants, the "fool" is often in the end the truth teller.

So are we right to fear that he could also be a danger to the nation? His "do or die" approach to Brexit is summed up in his typical aphorism: "If we go on kicking the can down the road we will end up kicking the bucket." It is succinct; Tory party members understand it; they see him as their one last chance, their saviour. But in fact, to quote Python's Life of Brian, he is just a "very naughty boy".

None of these talents to amuse will be any use to him at all in the challenges he has to face, if he is British Prime Minister by tomorrow night. You can't joke your way out of a confidence vote. Nothing changes in the parliamentary arithmetic on Tuesday except the Government will find itself with new enemies and fewer friends. The politics of Brexit are excruciatingly complex, and his simplification of it by talking of cans and buckets is so far from the reality as to be delusional. But Boris and reality are not close friends, never have been.

So why was he the prudent choice of Conservative party members? Because Boris can win them an election, see off the Brexit party and vanquish Jeremy Corbyn's Labour. And the fundamental point of being a Conservative is to be in power. Its principal tenet is that "people like us" should run the country. They live in Cheltenham and Chislehurst, Henley and Huntingdon. They do not live in Islington. They are older, better off, patriotic, more likely to have been to public school, less likely to have been to prison. They are the repository of a set of traditional values which are admirable in many ways. The country needs them as an anchor, a reminder of tradition and a channel to the past – but the country does not need them running Brexit. That way lies madness, and our present jeopardy lies in the fear that Boris Johnson, playing the fool, could be the person who will take us there.