Dublin priesthood ‘to decline by two-thirds in 15 years’

The number of priests in the Archdiocese of Dublin is forecast to decline by 70 per cent by 2030, according to new research produced for the Council of Priests.

Currently in Dublin there are 276 diocesan priests and 110 priests belonging to religious orders, totalling 386 under the age of 75.

If religious orders maintain their current level of commitment to parish ministry in the diocese, the report predicts a decline in priest numbers of up to 61 per cent. However, if religious orders are forced to withdraw from parish ministry due to their own declining numbers, then the fall in priest numbers by 2030 would leave just 111 priests carrying out parish ministry across Dublin’s 300 parishes. It is also predicted that just one new priest under the age of 40 will join the priesthood in Dublin every year up to 2030.

The research, carried out by consultants Towers Watson, also estimates Mass attendance to decline by a third by 2030. To tackle the crisis, the report ­recommends recruiting priests from overseas, reducing the number of Masses, allocating more work to volunteer laypeople, and “making it increasingly attractive to priests who are over 75 to remain involved in some capacity”.

Responding to the research findings, Fr Brendan Hoban of the Association of Catholic Priests described the report as “effectively a management plan for closure”. He said its solutions were “un­acceptable, particularly the disrespectful presumption that persuading priests over 75 years of age to continue working is worthy of serious consideration. Or that importing priests is a realistic solution, when the cultural difficulties involved are so obvious.”

Fr Gareth Byrne, chairman of the Dublin Diocesan Council of Priests, said that the report was an important attempt to be “pro-active rather than simply allow the situation to drift”.

He said the Council of Priests found the figures in the report “stark” but accepted the findings “as a strong indicator of where we seem to be heading”. He said the future would certainly involve parishes working more closely together and sharing personnel.