The Middle East stands on the brink of catastrophe. The escalation of violence that has left hundreds dead in Lebanon and dozens dead in Israel has appalled the world. Judgement, however, is more difficult. Israel is under attack from two fronts, and was provoked in both cases by the deliberate kidnapping of its servicemen. Nevertheless the scale of damage inflicted in Gaza after the first attack from Hamas already raised questions about a disproportionate use of force and brought accusations of collective punishment; a war crime. This fades into insignificance compared with the wholesale wrecking of the Lebanese economy and infrastructure, so painstakingly rebuilt following years of conflict, after the second kidnapping.

Measured against the kidnappings alone, this must be rated as so disproportionate as to demand international condemnation in the strongest terms. But there are other more general strategic issues to take into consideration. The kidnappings were not isolated, but occurred in the context of sustained provocation. Hezbollah's rocket attacks from southern Lebanon rank as a major act of aggression, sponsored, by all accounts, by the Syrian and Iranian governments. Israel blames the Lebanese Government for the kidnapping of its soldiers and while many analysts say that this is unfair, it remains the case that the country's Government does contain Hezbollah members, adding weight to the Israeli case.

However, the fact remains that the majority of those who are suffering in Lebanon are not Hezbollah members, but innocent civilians. The Israeli Prime Minister's promise that the attacks will go on until Hezbollah is beaten is not realistic. Bombing its members will make them ever more determined.

Clearly Israel is caught in a terrible predicament. Its overall policy is the peaceful one of seeking negotiations with like-minded parties towards a fair and just two-state solution. The Palestinians might conceivably ...