The announcement of the withdrawal of troops by the Russian President took the world by surprise. It may indicate a vote of confidence in the peace process and the Syrian state, but it may not bode so well for Bashar al-Assad

Wrong-footed again – Western strategists and Russia-watchers, that is. When Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s military intervention in Syria last September, the West reacted with surprise and shock. Similar incomprehension met the Russian President’s announcement this week that he had given the order to withdraw – though a malevolent motive was harder to find. Russian television showed planes and ships being loaded for departure; the US confirmed that at least a partial withdrawal was in train.

For the sake of accuracy it should be noted that Russia is not actually leaving. It appears to be withdrawing the 5,000 or so troops that it added to those already stationed at its marine and airbases at Tartus and Hmeimim in Latakia province. In effect, Russia’s presence in Syria will revert to what it was before last autumn.  

That itself, though, marks a big change. Why mount such a high-profile military intervention, with all the risks it entails, only to bring it to a seemingly precipitate halt five months later? Putin stated, in his television broadcast, that the troops were coming home because Russia’s mission had been accomplished. But if that is so, then its objectives look more modest than originally billed.