The world may be nearer to nuclear war than at any time since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. North Korea has an undoubted willingness to use nuclear weapons, not only defensively but aggressively, and it would only take one misjudgement to push it over the brink. And we have been warned. President Trump said this week: “There is a chance that we could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea. Absolutely.”

Trump’s Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, told the United Nations that failure to curb North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions could lead to “catastrophic consequences”. And last week Pope Francis warned that “a widespread war would destroy much of humanity. This is terrible. There is the need for a diplomatic solution …” He suggested a third party, such as Norway, could try to mediate one.

The situation is indeed ominous. There has been a tendency in the rest of the world to assume that the North Korean regime under Kim Jong-un is so irrational that it has no regard for its own self-interest. Hence the further tightening of economic sanctions, such as the recent ban on its exports of coal to China, is unlikely to bring it to heel – even China’s heel. Yet military containment, either by China and/or by the United States, has the potential to raise the temperature to flashpoint rather than lowering it.