What a fascinating political year 2016 will be. However, once the ink has dried on that first sentence, multiple uncertainties crowd the page. Every forecast must be coated with humility. Just think of this week next year. We could be in several different places in our relationship with Europe. The referendum of September or October 2016 (my hunch as to when it will happen) could see the UK voting narrowly to leave the European Union. If so, negotiations for a great unravelling of 43 years of relationships will already be underway, with completion day scheduled for some time in the autumn of 2018. The majority SNP Government in Edinburgh (almost certain to be returned in the May elections) will be rumbling about a new independence referendum. The bracing winds of standing alone in the col