Church in the World

Window of opportunity for Africa

Following the Pope's emphasis on the needs of Africa in his Easter Sunday "Urbi et Orbi" message, the Vatican's UN observer has added his voice to that of Pope Benedict XVI, urging the world to seize a unique development opportunity that is opening up for the continent.

Archbishop Celestino Migliore told a special UN session on population and development last week that Africa's shifting demographics "should hand that continent an unprecedented advantage in economic terms, as a young and numerous workforce should be available to it until at least 2050, while the demographic dividend in most other regions will have run out".

Archbishop Migliore was referring to the "demographic window" that opens for developing countries when a relatively large working-age population is available to support relatively fewer older and younger dependants. By targeted investment, especially in education, it is possible to push development along at an unprecedented rate, before the "window" closes again once improved health services allow for a greater proportion of children and old people relative to the working population. "Asian Tiger" economies of the 1980s and 1990s took advantage of this window, with lasting economic benefits.

The UN commission was meeting in New York to discuss a recent report on ageing populations. But in Africa's case, the Holy See emphasised, the demographic picture in the coming decades is different, and the period offers a one-off opportunity for prudent investment. "To ensure that Africa does not miss this window of opportunity for economic development, it must be helped, inter alia, to invest in its human capital and infrastructure to underpin economic growth," Archbishop Migliore said, adding that the Vatican believed education should thus be a top priority.

Population experts largely agree. "Sub-Saharan Africa has been the last region of the world to enter into this demographic transition," said Ronald D. Lee, a professor of economics and demographics at the University of California, Berkeley. "But it will be less painful to invest there over the coming decades. And this shift offers the chance to put infrastructure in place so that parents can invest more easily in their children's education and think about saving, accumulating assets. Then you can turn the liability of an ageing population into something positive."

Archbishop Migliore added that increased education for women in particular could substantially affect population growth. "As women become better educated, they gain greater respect," he said. "They become breadwinners; they acquire maturity in parental responsibility and a greater say in family affairs."

"Investing in people in this way," he said, "especially in education, is surely to be preferred to legal imposition of limits, to artificial corrective measures and drastic policies, and to the unacceptable practice of eliminating foetuses, especially females, in order to limit population growth."

But the commission's session contained some sobering assessments as well. For much of the industrialised world, especially in Europe, the demographic window has been closed for some time, and the elderly will soon impose a much heavier burden on those of working age. By 2050, the commission estimates, "the proportion of people aged 60 will have doubled and their number will reach 2 billion - three times what it is today".

This suggests a challenge of a different order. "It is to be hoped that states will work to foster respect for human life in all its stages and to find solutions that are right and just, not merely pragmatic," Archbishop Migliore said. "Here in particular, promoting solidarity between generations will be very valuable."