From the editor’s desk

What is needed after the war

To adapt Winston Churchill's famous phrase, jaw-jaw has replaced war-war in the Middle East, at least for the time being, and that has to be a change for the better. Israel now has to digest the rough handling its army received from Hezbollah, decide whether the campaign was a catastrophe or not, and if so, whom to sack. The Government of Lebanon has to begin the huge task of reconstruction following Israel's wanton and reckless air campaign, and must resolve its internal differences over whether and how to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah itself has to see whether its newly heroic status in the Arab street brings it any practical advantage, to offset the damage it has suffered to its military capability. In claiming victory over Israel, it has the benefit of never having declared its war aims, so no one can say whether they were achieved or not. But presumably being disarmed by French soldiers in UN helmets was not one of them, which is what the Security Council now insists should happen.

Though its right to defend itself was never in doubt, Israel lost enormous moral credit by the way it went about that defence. More than 1,000 Lebanese civilians were killed, mainly by bombing, which suggests that air force targeting was routinely based on poor or non-existent intelligence - an impression confirmed by Israel's inability to locate and destroy Hezbollah's rocket launchers. The boast by one Israeli minister that Lebanon's development would be "put back 20 years" indicates a disgraceful willingness to disregard international law, attack civil infrastructure and take innocent life.

None of the problems of the region has been made any

easier by this outcome. While the world was focused on Israel's northern frontiers, the situation in Gaza continued to deteriorate. Hamas, which controls the West Bank, will have been emboldened by Hezbollah's success. Worse, a weak American Government seems to have lost its will to broker peace in the region, notwithstanding Tony Blair's promise to redouble his efforts. The road map to a two-state solution remains the only viable contender for a peace plan, but it will work only if America applies huge and continuous pressure. Instead, Arabs have new reasons to hate Israel; Israel has new reasons to fear Arabs; Washington has new reasons to turn its back.

Even so, a solution may be possible. Hamas has been edging towards accepting Israel's right to exist, albeit behind pre-1967 borders. By their sponsorship of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran have done their worst against Israel but have no strategic gains to show for it. If peace will happen only when all other options have been exhausted, perhaps the last four weeks have seen the exhaustion of at least some of them.

Furthermore, as an unintended result of the spread of democracy in the region, both Hezbollah and Hamas have parliamentary seats. For a while, the bullet and the ballot box can exist side by side, but sooner or later the ballot box will win. But there will be a price for peace on Israel's side. It must realise eventually that annexing the West Bank settlements will guarantee another half century of trouble, and instead seek some way of acknowledging the legitimacy of Palestinian claims over them. Otherwise the conflicts of the last month will just be re-enacted again and again, and no one profits from that.