Tony Blair?s majority might have disappeared at the election if Catholic voters had not remained loyal to Labour. The results of a MORI survey for The Tablet reveals the role of religion at the ballot box

Britain might be one of the most secular nations in Europe, but the religious vote still plays a powerful part in the life of the country. According to MORI surveys conducted for The Tablet the votes of Catholics gave Tony Blair the edge in Labour?s narrow victory.

Labour won the election by just three percentage points, taking a 36 per cent share of the vote, while the Conservatives took 33 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 23 per cent. Had no Catholics voted, the Tories would have secured a knife-edge 35 per cent to 34 per cent lead in the popular vote, depriving Tony Blair of a popular mandate. The research throughout the election campaign showed that Labour support among Catholics, at 53 per cent, stands if anything higher than in 1997 when Tony Blair was first elected. MORI surveys before that election put Labour support among Catholics at just over 50 per cent. Catholic loyalty to Tony Blair is in distinct contrast to the attitudes of the rest of the public, helping to give a vital cushion of seats.

As a group, Catholics are among Labour?s strongest supporters. Had only Catholics voted, the third Labour landslide would have been of monumental proportions, with Labour gaining more than half of all the votes cast and a majority measured in hundreds of seats rather than tens, while the Liberal Democrats would have almost overtaken the Tories in votes, if not in seats. Without these Catholic votes questions about the democratic legitimacy of Tony Blair?s hold on power would be very much stronger and his hold on the premiership tenuous.

Early on in the election campaign, Catholic Labour MPs voiced concern that an intervention by Cardinal Murphy-O?Connor might cost them votes. The cardinal was caught up in controversy after he spoke out approving a pledge by the Conservative leader, Michael Howard, to make parliamentary time for a bill to reduce abortion time limits, should he have been elected Prime Minister. Then, speaking later, the cardinal observed that Catholic support could not be taken for granted, and that some Catholic voters might switch to the Conservatives. The indications are that the intervention did not have a noticeable influence on Catholic voting intentions.

Instead, the majority of Catholic voters stayed loyal to Labour. The Protestant vote, however, was very different: Michael Howard?s party had a 10-point lead over Labour among non-Catholic Christians, and if only they had voted he would have been choosing his Cabinet on the Friday morning following the election.

Tories are particularly strong in the Church of England which, while not quite living up to its old stereotype as ?the Conservative Party at prayer?, voted 44 per cent Conservative to 31 per cent Labour and 20 per cent Liberal Democrat ? a 13-point lead.

In 1997, British voters gave the Labour Party led by Tony Blair his first Labour landslide, with a majority in the House of Commons of 179 seats over all other parties. In 2001, against a weak and dispirited Opposition led by William Hague, fought by Labour on health care, education and public services and by the Conservatives principally on Europe, the Labour landslide was hardly reduced, to 167. This time it was reduced by 100, to 66 seats.

The loss of seats appeared to be due, among other things, to Mr Blair?s stand on Iraq, and this lost some Catholic votes, with eight per cent of them saying the debate over the Attorney-General?s advice on the invasion of Iraq changed the way they intended to vote in the election. Nearly a third of Catholics (31 per cent) said they thought the Prime Minister lied about the war from the start, and another 21 per cent of Catholics are of the opinion that, while he may have told the truth about Iraq to begin with, he lied later.

But Catholic voters stayed loyal to Labour, convinced by other policies. Fifty-six per cent of them were of the opinion that a Labour government would be most effective in getting good value for the public money it spends, compared to just four in 10 of the public generally. More than three in four Catholics, 77 per cent, said they expect the Labour Government to put up their taxes, but they still voted for them; but then 73 per cent of Catholics said they believed that if the Conservatives had been given power they too would have put up taxes.

While fewer than a quarter (22 per cent) of the public generally describe themselves as ?Old Labour?, over a third (34 per cent) of Catholics say that term best describes their political view.

Two-thirds of the British public consider themselves Christian (including 11 per cent who are Catholics), while one in 12 belong to other religions and a quarter to none. More women are religious than men (20 per cent of women but 29 per cent of men say they have no religion), and a greater proportion of old people are religious than young (only 11 per cent of those aged 65 and over are agnostics or atheists compared to 36 per cent of 18-34-year-olds).

There are considerable regional variations, Catholics being most widespread in London, Scotland and particularly the North-west (where one in five is Catholic). They are sparsest in Wales and the Southwest. In London Anglicans outnumber Catholics only by two to one (32 per cent and 16 per cent of adults respectively), but there are also 18 per cent belonging to non-Christian religions, reflecting the capital?s high ethnic minority population. Interestingly, though, there is very little regional variation in the numbers repudiating all faiths.

Contrary to some stereotypes, the greater adherence of Catholics to the Labour Party cannot be explained in terms of social class. There is little difference between Catholic and Anglican churches in the class composition of their respective flocks, and indeed what difference there is points in the other direction ? 55 per cent of Catholics, but only 51 per cent of those from the Church of England, are ?middle class? in market research terms (that is, coming from a household where the chief income earner is, or was until retirement, in a non-manual occupation.)

Age is a significant factor, however. While there are more professed Catholics in the youngest age groups (14 per cent of 18-24 year olds) than the oldest (9 per cent of those aged over 65), the Church of England by contrast has almost double the proportion of adherents in the oldest age group as in the youngest; the old tend towards the Conservatives while the young ? when they vote ? are more likely to support Labour.

Overall, turnout was 61.3 per cent, up from 59.4 per cent at the 2001 election. Turnout was higher among Christians than the rest of the electorate, with 61 per cent of Catholics and 65 per cent of other Christians getting to the polls, compared to 56 per cent of those professing other faiths and 55 per cent of those who said they had no religion. Catholic voters were urged by their bishops before the election to vote, and were reminded of their responsibility to be involved in the democratic process in a letter from the Bishops? Conference of England and Wales.

Catholics were a little more likely than the rest of the public to say that, at the time they were interviewed, they might still change their mind about how to vote ? a fifth of all adults but a quarter of Catholics admitted they were still wavering. In the end, though, they made up their minds in Tony Blair?s direction.

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 4,270 British adults aged 18+, including 471 who stated that they were Roman Catholics, between 15 April and 1 May 2005. Roughly half the interviews were conducted face-to-face, in respondents? homes, and the remainder were conducted by telephone. Data were weighted to the demographic profile of the population and to reflect the final result and turnout at the general election.

Sir Robert Worcester is Founder and Chairman of MORI; Dr Roger Mortimore is MORI?s Senior Political Analyst. Their books Explaining Labour?s Landslide and Explaining Labour?s Second Landslide are published by Politico?s.