The problem with Pakistan

The world is faced with nuclear dangers on a worrying scale, but while the Western focus is on Iran, a greater threat is growing daily in a country seen as a bastion against terrorism

The response of the Western allies to perceived nuclear threats in the most oil-rich and unstable areas of the globe has been ill judged. Saddam Hussein was toppled, no weapons of mass destruction were found and Iraqis, Americans and Britons continue to live - and die - with the consequences.

In Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would like to be the ruler of a nuclear power, but does not have the wherewithal to achieve his ambition for several years yet. Nevertheless the Washington establishment is preoccupied with how to stop Mr Ahmadinejad from developing nuclear weapons and whether to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iran's potential nuclear facilities.

Yet, instead of concentrating on developing a long-term policy of cutting off President Ahmadinejad from potentially lethal nuclear supplies, and trying to deactivate the far more immediate threat from Pakistan, the US is supplying military hardware to President Pervez Musharraf, who this week rejected America's call to end emergency rule and free thousands of political opponents.

The dangers of General Musharraf's already nuclear-armed Pakistan hardly figure in any of the endless US presidential debates that are in full swing with a year to go to the election. Yet Washington does not have a clear idea of where the weapons it is supplying to Pakistan are going, and for what purpose they are being used, by the various rogue elements in the divided country.

Indeed, the US has supplied Pakistan with more than US$11 billion worth of military supplies since the fateful terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 on New York and the Pentagon, and it is clear that some of these weapons are leaking to the fundamentalists dedicated to bringing down "the Great Satan" of the US.

Even after General Musharraf declared a state of emergency on 3 November to stop the supreme court from declaring his re-election as Pakistan's president invalid, the US Defense Department made it plain that it would continue business as usual with Pakistan. It sees Pakistan's Government as its bulwark against terrorism. Talking to people on both sides of the Atlantic, it is clear that the Europeans are horrified by the direction that General Musharraf is taking Pakistan and fear that at best his crackdown will merely postpone a bigger explosion for five or 10 years.

When a ruler declares a state of emergency citing deteriorating law and order and terrorism, he might be expected to round up the major suspects. However, General Musharraf arrested the judges, lawyers, human-rights activists and other leading lights, shut down or silenced the media, and made it an offence to criticise the military. It is eight years since the general overthrew then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Since 1999 he has moved Pakistan further away from democracy and, more important, is further than ever from defeating the Islamic terrorists.

Fundamentalists now control vast swathes of the North West Frontier and Baluchistan bordering Afghanistan and Iran. They are able to use the shelter of the rugged and poorly policed terrain on either side to train suicide bombers who then cross into Afghanistan, back into Pakistan and to who-knows-where after that. These are largely no-go areas for the Pakistan military.

In the last few months, hardline Muslims have extended their tentacles into the heart of Islamabad, where the Red Mosque became rebel territory on the doorstep of the Government and army. General Musharraf did not move to suppress the daily stream of hatred until radicals in the mosque abducted seven Chinese, accusing them of running a brothel, and Beijing demanded action. Then he finally suppressed the militants and smashed the mosque, with many deaths.

The district of Swat, previously known as a tourist beauty spot, has become a new battleground where Maulana Fazlullah, nicknamed "Mullah Radio" for his private radio station, called for a holy war against the Pakistan authorities. Already a monumental seventh-century stone image of the seated Buddha, second only to the destroyed Bamiyan Buddhas as a work of religious and cultural significance in south Asia, has been blown up and partially destroyed in this Islamic resurgence around Swat.

More than 800 people have been killed in suicide bombings in Pakistan since July, including more than 130 who came to welcome the former prime minister Benazir Bhutto when she landed again in Pakistan after years in exile, hoping to return to power in elections, possibly in a deal with General Musharraf that was never finally brokered.

It is clear now that the general has become part of Pakistan's problem. His popularity rating slumped to 20 per cent in a Pakistan that was lively with debate until the crackdown. He has overseen an expanding Pakistan military, which is today a big business with huge interests in real estate and in other sectors, from breakfast cereal and bakeries to banking.

The hopes of the American military that Islamabad will provide the key to capturing Osama bin Laden and his henchmen have proved unfounded. Indeed, some Pakistani military interests, especially the powerful ISI (Inter Services Intelligence), which helped the US to equip the fundamentalists with modern arms in the fight against the Russians, actually don't want to see the Taliban defeated. To them, the Taliban is useful in extending Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan.

General Musharraf has tried to present the stark choice for Pakistan as one between him and chaos. But the reality is that he has made chaos more likely. The emergency brings the world closer to the real atomic nightmare that nuclear weapons will fall into the hands of Islamic extremists, and to the prospect that Islamicists may control the huge area of territory where the Indian subcontinent meets China, Russia and the Middle East.

This physical proximity of the Islamic terrorists to their own territories is also why China, and indeed Russia, should be concerned. Both probably have a cheerful instinct to allow Washington find its own way out of the current mess. Moscow probably sees it as sweet revenge for what happened to Soviet forces in Afghanistan, with American help. China too would be uncomfortable with a radical Islamic state armed with nuclear weapons on its southern underbelly where strong Muslim minorities live. It says a great deal about the diplomatic incompetence of President George W. Bush that there is no echo of this shared concern between the US, China and Russia in the statements from Beijing and Moscow.

General Musharraf has promised elections next year, but only under the state of emergency, which will not allow for free elections. The democratic forces - lawyers, journalists, politicians - should be the best allies, with the army, against the fundamentalists. It is not in Pakistan's interests, apart from the few on the Islamic fringe, and those of the military who are on the make, to see the country turned into a fundamentalist Muslim state that could be a terror factory for the world, actively armed with nuclear technology.

The area that is Pakistan has a rich tradition of tolerance, and Sufism flourished. In free elections, Islamic fundamentalists never won more than 10 per cent of the vote. But in the present vacuum, with leaders of civil society under arrest, the mullahs will become the focus of the opposition to General Musharraf. The spawning of madrasas, which are helping to fuel fundamentalist ideas, is a result of the Government's failure in education.

It is certainly time for Washington to wake up to the nuclear danger and urge Pakistan's army back to doing its job - defending the country against its enemies, including terrorists. It will not be easy because the army has grown used to running the country and cleaning up the mess after kicking out corrupt politicians. But the other lesson of Pakistan's history is that power has corrupted the army, too.

It is not an easy choice between too obviously corrupted politicians and the army, but the politicians should be given another chance, with the lively media and newly emerging vocal lawyers and courts to see that they do not stray too far off the rails, as they have done so often before.

A major issue is what to do with General Musharraf. A wise man would immediately retire from the army, to allow it to do its proper job, and step down from all his other posts. Unfortunately neither the general nor his US allies understands this. Perhaps it is time for Europe to talk in the UN and to China and Russia about the common interests of having fair elections and a government that reflects the wishes of the 180 million people for jobs, education for their children and an end to mindless violence.